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Log In Sign Up. The Problems of Evaluating Counter-Terrorism. Following the terrorist attacks of September 11th security policies aimed at combating terrorist threats have been implemented all around the world.
As a result new counter-terrorism is spreading and seems to be appearing everywhere. But how do we know if any of the policies intended to tackle terrorism are really working? How can we measure the effectiveness of these measures? Governments and officials point to the number of incidences, arrested and killed terrorists or the amounts of terrorist financing that has been
Intelectualismo moral yahoo dating as an indicator, while academia often refers to more sophisticated equations involving time series in risk management and cost-benefit calculations.
Although, these rationalist approaches appear straightforward and seem to provide the quantified data required for the measurement of the success of these policies, there seems to be an error in the measure of terror!
This paper will provide a critique of the existing rationalist methods of assessing the effectiveness of counter-terrorism and is predominantly aimed at highlighting their weaknesses as well as introducing Intelectualismo moral yahoo dating need for further research into additional and alternative ways of evaluating counter-terrorism.
Counter-terrorism, terrorism, effectiveness, measure. Contraterrorismo, terrorismo, efectividad, medida. Others note the failures in the form of continued attacks in Bali, Madrid and London as well as the growing weariness of US allies.
Counter-terrorism refers to all kinds of policies, operations and programmes that governments implement to combat terrorism. The aim of this paper is to give an insight into the weaknesses of the dominant rationalist approaches of assessing the effectiveness of counter-terrorism policies.
The research is important because at present increasingly restrictive and controversial counter-terrorism measures are being implemented without the possibility "Intelectualismo moral yahoo dating" evaluating their usefulness and necessity.
The anti-terror bill in the UK which proposed to imprison suspected terrorists for three months without trial or the highly controversial shoot-to-kill policy following the London bombings is a prime example of this. As much in a fight against terrorism as against conventional enemies, inadequate measures of effectiveness can contribute to complacency, the wrong allocation of scarce resources and horrible surprises.
Different to a traditional "Intelectualismo moral yahoo dating" campaign, there is no enemy capital to take over or industry to destroy. B01, Scheuer, Michael Since the s research on the topic has been predominantly conducted in the fields of sociology, psychology and political science in general, but considering that we are apparently facing international terrorism today, surprisingly little International Relations theory has been explicitly applied to the study of terrorism.
A brief scan of the two leading specialist journals on terrorism Intelectualismo moral yahoo dating — Terrorism and Political Violence and Studies in Conflict and Terrorism — seems to show that no articles are directly concerned about applying IR theory to terrorism and a brief look at six leading IR theory journals seems to confirm this trend.
It is a subject that plays an important role in international politics, international organisations and foreign policy considerations of many states around the world.
The question of how to measure the effectiveness of these counter-terrorism policies is important. It thereby calls Intelectualismo moral yahoo dating further research on the subject and emphasises the urgent need to reflect on other possible ways of evaluating counter- terrorism.
It hopes to indicate the potential of shifting the focus, considering the fear and terror aspect of terrorism, and centring on the feeling of security counter-terrorism policies generate. In pursuit of these points the rest of the paper will be structured as follows: This will include simple rational indicators used by governments and the media as well as some of the academic studies conducted on the subject predominantly in the field of risk assessment and cost-benefit calculations which use data on terrorist events and time series.
This will be followed by section three, which sets forth the difficulties and weaknesses of such rationalist Intelectualismo moral yahoo dating. The fourth section will argue that rationalist approaches totally neglect the main component of terrorism: Section five calls for further research into potential alternative or supplementary approaches to assessing the effectiveness of counter-terrorism.
This includes the possible use of social constructivist 8 Pillar, Paul R. The final section will summarise the main arguments and draw tentative conclusions. Exactly demarcating the policy area of counter-terrorism is difficult, as measures implemented in the name of fighting terrorism are very different. As with many other policies, bureaucracies and government agencies are held accountable for the cost-effectiveness of their expenditure.
For example, in the U. In other words they have to give evidence of their performance and measure their progress against their aims. Buckley, Mary and Fawn, Rick eds. The White House, at http: Furthermore, its military campaigns and the toppling of the regimes in Afghanistan and Iraq are presented as measures of success in the war on
Intelectualismo moral yahoo dating. These have included the botched bombing of a US airline by the Shoe Bomber Richard Reid in Decemberthe foiling of an attempted truck bomb attack in Singapore aimed at embassies, the airport and financial district, or the failed effort to bomb of U.
Some point out that the numbers of fatalities generally gives a good impression of the success of terrorist activities and are therefore a good way of assessing the effectiveness of counter-terrorism measures. Kennedy and Alison J. Sherley highlights the apparent gap in the literature, noting that only about or 1,5 percent of a total of 20, studies on the topic of terrorism discuss the idea of evaluating the effectiveness of counter- terrorist measures in some form, while only seven deal with it specifically.
They believe that a successful counter-terrorism measure reduces the amount of terrorist violence and therefore that, the level of terrorist incidents is plotted over time and against some policy indicators, it is possible to see whether the measure is effective or not. Here it is assumed that terrorists groups act Intelectualismo moral yahoo dating a western rational way, that they reflect and substitute certain types of action with others when faced with excessive difficulties.
Terrorists have a certain limited budget and try to maximise the effect of their resources. One of the first studies to use economics in the analysis of counter-terrorist measures was by William M.
Landes, who in used ordinary least squares regression techniques to examine the aircraft hijackings in the US during He showed with econometric methods that the use of sky marshals and metal detectors had had a significant positive effect on the probability of apprehension and a significant negative influence on the number of offences committed. The data indicated a steep drop in skyjackings after these security measures became operational in January In the US, there were twenty-seven incidents of skyjackings in and only one in To Intelectualismo moral yahoo dating out these basic commodities, terrorists have to select between terrorist and non-terrorist actions, while having to deal with only limited resources.
If they choose to follow the violent terrorist route they have to decide what kind of attack they want to perpetrate.
The price of a certain terrorist attack results mostly from the resources governments have implemented to stop such an attack. Difficulties of the rationalist approach The overarching problem of the rationalist approach is that it predominantly focuses on hard quantitative data such as measuring the body count or number of incidents and thereby ignores many of the qualitative aspects.
Success is generally expressed with the help of indicators which are easily accessible and quantifiable. Government officials point to the decline of the number of terrorist incidents as sign of a successful counter-terrorism campaign. Regardless that this proved to be wrong due to a statistical error in their calculations and that the number of attacks actually was higher than the previous year, thereby according to their logic indicating the failure of their policies, the number of terrorist incidents say nothing about the effectiveness of existing counter-terrorism measures.
There are many different reasons for why "Intelectualismo moral yahoo dating" numbers of incidents can decrease. They may also be in a phase of recruiting and training new members or buying new weapons to strike another day.
At the same time a terrorist group which is actually in decline may opt to attack more frequently and more violently in order to prove to governments, supporters and the general public that they 36 Sandler, Todd and Enders, Walter: Patterns of Global Terrorismat http: Even, when one is able to eliminate two-thirds of the top leadership, the rank and file of the group may grow, and as a result decentralise and become more resilient.
Indeed, a terrorist group that loses members to arrest or targeted killings may actually increase in overall size if the crackdown generates a backlash. Statistics are supposed to give an insight into general trends and patterns. However, the rare, random-like and uneven nature of terrorism and the fluctuation of incidents run counter to the idea of trends and patterns, something that might have been realised by the US government when it renamed its annual publication Patterns of Global Terrorism to Country Reports on Terrorism.
Although governments often proclaim the effectiveness of their policies in the absence of further attacks and it may seem logical consider a decrease in terrorist activity as an indicator of effective counter-terrorism, the asymmetric non-linear nature of terrorism, which aims to surprise it victims, can mean that terrorists are biding their time and preparing for a bigger more devastating attack.
Apart from the traditional problems concerning the field of terrorism research such as the often classified nature of the subject, there are a number of issues directly concerned with data collection. Government figures are biased as they count incidents using a definition of terrorism which reflect their political ideals and policy concerns, while non-governmental organisations generally have to use media reports to compile their databases, therefore only including incidents which make it into Intelectualismo moral yahoo dating mainstream news.
For this reason most domestic terrorism in countries such as Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka, Algeria or Colombia are ignored or reported very unevenly, and at the same time it is difficult to judge whether an attack can be attributed to terrorism or whether it "Intelectualismo moral yahoo dating" part of a continuing civil war. Where as the incidents of other social
Intelectualismo moral yahoo dating such as crime are very frequent, incidents of terrorism, especially large attacks, are very rare in comparison.
Richard Falkenrath believes that data on terrorism is not really appropriate for quantitative analysis, on which risk assessments predominantly relies. Terrorism is not a random phenomenon. Unlike other traditional subjects dealt with in risk management such as natural disasters, accidents or public health, terrorism is less prone to conforming to statistical patterns.
Terrorism is caused by humans and they decide when and how to attack. This decision is not made randomly but is made after careful consideration and depend on, and is influenced by, external factors such Intelectualismo moral yahoo dating government decisions and actions.
Terrorists attack deliberately in a form which does not conform to a pattern in to surprise the opponent. Simple applications of this frequency theory of probability can fail spectacularly when the possible event has occurred only rarely or never at all.
Although one can calculate the direct cost of certain anti-terrorist policies such as new x-ray machines or explosive detectors at airports, there are a number of hidden costs such as the value of the lost time of travelers. As Enders and Sandler point out, one way to estimate a portion of this benefit Intelectualismo moral yahoo dating be to calculate the reduced loss of life attributable to airport security measures — i.
If the net number of such lives saved, after adjusting for substitution into other life-threatening terrorist actions, can be measured, then the average value of a statistical life, although morally highly questionable, could be applied to translate these lives into monetary value. One would have to also add the reduced financial losses in the form of destroyed planes and buildings as well as other even further removed consideration, such as the recession in the airline industry and increased insurance premiums to name but a few.